{"id":20431,"date":"2024-05-01T19:23:30","date_gmt":"2024-05-01T16:23:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/?p=20431"},"modified":"2024-05-01T19:23:30","modified_gmt":"2024-05-01T16:23:30","slug":"what-turmoil-in-ecowas-means-for-nigeria-and-regional-stability-4-9","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/2024\/05\/01\/what-turmoil-in-ecowas-means-for-nigeria-and-regional-stability-4-9\/","title":{"rendered":"What Turmoil in Ecowas Means for Nigeria and Regional Stability (4-9)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nnamdi Obasi<\/strong>
\nSenior Adviser, Nigeria<\/p>\n

Nigeria\u2019s souring relations with Niger, with which it shares a more than 1,500km border and close economic ties, could have other implications as well. In 2022, trade between the two countries was about $226 million, according to International Trade Centre data. But since August 2023, this volume has shrunk significantly, following the closure of the border and suspension of flights between the two countries, due to both Abuja\u2019s enforcement of the ECOWAS sanctions on Niger and Niamey\u2019s reciprocal measures on self-defence grounds. The removal of sanctions notwithstanding, Niger\u2019s exit from ECOWAS could prevent commerce between the two countries from fully bouncing back, as traders will now have to pay duties on imports, with adverse repercussions on livelihoods in the border states and beyond.
\nThe deterioration of relations between Abuja and Niamey also jeopardises \u2013 and could eventually scuttle \u2013 two important projects: a 284km railway connecting the two countries\u2019 second-largest cities (Kano in Nigeria and Maradi in Niger); and the ambitious 4,100km Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline that could deliver as much as 30 billion cubic metres of Nigeria\u2019s natural gas to Europe each year.
\nThe bloc\u2019s loss of three member states is a major disappointment for President Tinubu, who saw the crisis as both an opportunity to assert himself as a statesman and reinforce ECOWAS\u2019s credentials as an enforcer of constitutional rule in the region.
\nOn 9 July 2023, just before Niger\u2019s coup, Tinubu became chair of ECOWAS at the organisation\u2019s summit in Guinea-Bissau. In accepting the post, he pledged to put a premium on peace and security and promised a hard line against military seizures of power, declaring: \u201cWe will not allow coup after coup in West Africa again. \u2026 We must not sit in ECOWAS as toothless bulldogs\u201d. Tinubu was a strong supporter of firm action to reverse the coup in Niger, asking the Nigerian parliament to approve a \u201cmilitary build-up and deployment of personnel for military intervention to enforce compliance of the military junta in Niger should they remain recalcitrant\u201d. At the emergency meeting of ECOWAS heads of state in Abuja on 30 July 2023, Tinubu forcefully stated that \u201cthere\u2019s no more time for us to send a warning signal. It\u2019s time for action\u201d. It seems clear, however, that circumstances compelled him to back down. Burkina Faso and Mali had pledged to defend Niger, raising the sobering spectre of war between ECOWAS states and the Sahelian alliance. Tinubu also faced unforeseen, but overwhelming domestic opposition to the idea of a foreign military operation.
\nThe turmoil in ECOWAS, along with the rapid switch from confrontation to appeasement of the military rulers, have raised concerns among many Nigerians about Tinubu\u2019s leadership of the bloc. His initial threat of military action against the Nigerien military authorities (widely seen as hasty and ill-advised); his imposition of crippling sanctions that boomeranged in northern Nigeria; his inability to reverse the coup in Niamey; and then his failure to avoid the split in the regional bloc not only highlight the bloc\u2019s institutional limitations but also call his judgment into question.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nnamdi Obasi Senior Adviser, Nigeria Nigeria\u2019s souring relations with Niger, with which it shares a more than 1,500km border and close economic ties, could have other implications as well. In 2022, trade between the two countries was about $226 million, according to International Trade Centre data. But since August 2023, this volume has shrunk significantly, …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":20434,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20431","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20431","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20431"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20431\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20435,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20431\/revisions\/20435"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/20434"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20431"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20431"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20431"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}