{"id":51493,"date":"2025-07-16T23:27:26","date_gmt":"2025-07-16T20:27:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/?p=51493"},"modified":"2025-07-16T23:28:02","modified_gmt":"2025-07-16T20:28:02","slug":"president-al-burhan-and-the-emptying-the-circle-theory-1-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/16\/president-al-burhan-and-the-emptying-the-circle-theory-1-2\/","title":{"rendered":"President Al-Burhan and the \u201cEmptying the Circle\u201d Theory (1\/2)"},"content":{"rendered":"

As I See<\/strong><\/p>\n

Adel El-Baz<\/strong><\/p>\n

1
\nDuring my second meeting with President Al-Burhan\u2014as part of the media delegation visiting from Doha\u2014I noticed that all the members of the delegation were focused on current events and the many questions circulating in the political sphere, many of which only the president himself could answer.<\/p>\n

However, in that session, I felt compelled to draw the president\u2019s attention to something else\u2014what I called the “imperative of leadership unity under all circumstances.”<\/p>\n

The reason behind this was that just a day before meeting the president, I had met with a prominent political figure\u2014one of the pillars of the current ruling alliance\u2014who spoke to me bitterly about what he believed to be numerous grave errors being committed by the state. He had reached the conclusion that reform was no longer possible.<\/p>\n

I engaged him in a lengthy discussion, stressing the dangers of instability within the leadership structure and the necessity of maintaining its cohesion in a time when the country is fighting a war for its very existence.<\/p>\n

2
\nIn that meeting, I told President Al-Burhan:
\n“I have no questions or comments about current events, but I would like to offer one piece of advice: it is essential to preserve leadership unity in these circumstances. Any signs of fragmentation or visible internal conflict would erode confidence in the leadership, weaken the ‘Dignity War Alliance,’ and lead to dangerous consequences on the battlefield\u2014a fact you’re certainly aware of.
\nTherefore, any disagreement, no matter the issue, should be seen as secondary and must not threaten leadership unity. And by leadership, I mean everyone supporting the army\u2014whether on the battlefield, or from their political positions and parties.”<\/p>\n

That was the extent of what I told President Al-Burhan in that session.<\/p>\n

3
\nWhat prompts me to revisit that advice today is what has transpired in the political scene over the past week: power struggles over cabinet seats and ministries that nearly tore apart the unity of the forces fighting on the front lines.<\/p>\n

A dangerous phenomenon is beginning to emerge: leaks from individuals close to decision-making circles. These leaks sow discord, deepen rifts between leaders, and threaten the mutual trust that is vital among those steering the ship during these critical times.<\/p>\n

4
\nTwo developments brought my earlier words in Port Sudan back to memory:
\nFirst, the Joint Forces\u2019 Statement; second, a column by Youssef Abdel Manaan.<\/p>\n

The statement from the Joint Forces was issued on the afternoon of July 13, 2025, following the recapture of the Umm Sumeima area. In it, Joint Forces spokesperson Colonel Ahmed Hussein Mustafa called on all citizens to “unite, rally around national interests, and abandon personal disputes\u2014aligning behind the Armed Forces, the Joint Forces, and the popular resistance.” He stressed that “the fate of the entire nation hangs in the balance, and the current phase requires true solidarity among all national forces.”<\/p>\n

When a battlefield commander feels the need to urge others to put aside personal rivalries and unite, it is a clear sign that the struggle for power has reached a level significant enough to concern those who are sacrificing their lives for the country. We must listen to them.<\/p>\n

5
\nTwo days later, Youssef Abdel Manaan\u2014a journalist close to decision-making circles, and one of the most professional and insightful writers on the war\u2019s developments\u2014wrote:\u00a0\u201cForeign intelligence succeeded in sowing discord among the ruling forces who have been fighting together since the war began. The allure of power has now taken center stage. Everyone is preoccupied with the Kamil Idris crisis\u2014who becomes minister, who gets sidelined\u2014while trust is eroding between Al-Burhan and his partners over a manufactured crisis. Even many Islamists have lost faith in Al-Burhan, and the Unionists are disillusioned, despite the sincere efforts of the industrious young advisor, Alaa al-Din.\u201d<\/p>\n

And this is not to mention the many rumors circulating within Port Sudan\u2019s corridors of power\u2014no longer a secret to anyone.<\/p>\n

6
\nIn light of all this, fears have grown that the “Emptying the Circle” theory may now be in play, and that those behind it are following the same script used to topple President Bashir. Their aim today, however, is not just to bring down President Al-Burhan\u2014but the entire state.<\/p>\n

What is the \u201cEmptying the Circle\u201d theory?<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not an academic theory with established principles, but rather a practical tactic used to bring down a regime from within.<\/p>\n

I first heard about it in Cairo, in October 2013. My friend Diaa Bilal and I were meeting with a Sudanese-American who had been my university colleague. He worked at one of the most influential U.S. organizations and played a significant role both before and after the 2019 regime change.<\/p>\n

He told us: \u201cWe\u2019ll bring down Bashir within five years, at most.\u201d<\/p>\n

We laughed. I said, \u201cYou\u2019ve been saying that for thirty years. Sanctions failed, invasions failed, airstrikes failed\u2014the regime is still standing.\u201d<\/p>\n

He replied: \u201cTrue. But this time, we\u2019re changing strategy and tactics.\u201d<\/p>\n

Puzzled, Diaa and I exchanged glances. He said with confidence: \u201cWe\u2019ll start by emptying the circle.\u201d<\/p>\n

He continued:\u00a0\u201cIf you drain the circle around the president of strong, experienced, and influential figures, he\u2019ll fill the void with weaker ones lacking expertise. That\u2019s when vulnerability sets in. And we\u2019ve already begun.\u201d<\/p>\n

At the time, President Bashir had dismissed Salah Gosh in 2009, only to reappoint him in February 2018.<\/p>\n

7
\nIn a regime like the Ingaz (Salvation) Government, the president was surrounded by a \u201chard circle\u201d\u2014a network of political loyalty, organizational expertise, and security backing.<\/p>\n

This circle preserved balance, managed internal disputes, and protected the regime from collapse.<\/p>\n

Once targeted for dismantling, this core became a fatal weak point\u2014the essence of what we now call the \u201cEmptying the Circle\u201d theory.<\/p>\n

8
\nSo, what happened?<\/p>\n

Salah Gosh\u2019s chapter closed on August 13, 2009, and the dominoes began to fall:<\/p>\n

On December 8, 2013, Ali Osman and Dr. Nafi Ali Nafi were abruptly removed from office, despite having wielded significant power.<\/p>\n

Ghazi Salahuddin was dismissed from his role as political advisor and expelled from the National Congress Party (NCP) that same month.<\/p>\n

Thirty-one senior NCP leaders were ousted for signing a memo criticizing the suppression of protests and calling for reforms.<\/p>\n

These individuals were the backbone of the \u201chard circle,\u201d known for their political acumen and state influence.<\/p>\n

Once gone, Bashir relied on security agencies, Hemetti\u2019s Rapid Support Forces, and politically inexperienced civilian figures. The ruling party and the Islamic movement were completely marginalized and excluded from decision-making circles.<\/p>\n

Institutional capacity dwindled, decision-making became erratic and personalized, and Bashir appeared increasingly isolated\u2014surrounded by men who lacked both experience and loyalty.<\/p>\n

9
\nEmptying the circle weakens a leader not just politically\u2014but psychologically:<\/p>\n

His decision-making capacity deteriorates<\/p>\n

He loses trust in those around him<\/p>\n

His perception of reality becomes distorted<\/p>\n

All of this was evident in Bashir\u2019s final speeches\u2014especially the one on February 22, 2019, when he dissolved the government and declared a state of emergency. The country then spiraled into rapid decline.<\/p>\n

He repeatedly tried to appease the streets, but it was too late. His responses were disorganized, and the regime became the victim of a double emptying:<\/p>\n

One externally orchestrated to weaken it from within<\/p>\n

The other internally manufactured by regime insiders through limitless infighting\u2014until they abandoned Bashir at the most critical hour and let him fall as though he were no longer their concern.<\/p>\n

The circle had been emptied. The regime collapsed.
\nOnce balance was lost, confusion reigned, and the regime was devoured by forces of evil\u2014both internal and external.<\/p>\n

At that point, Bashir was floating alone, trapped in a void.
\nThe rest, as they say, is history\u2014carved by fate.<\/p>\n

10
\nNow, the very same internal and external forces\u2014yes, the same ones\u2014with the same faces, methods, and conspiratorial skill, are trying to play the same game with President Al-Burhan.<\/p>\n

How?<\/p>\n

To be continued\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As I See Adel El-Baz 1 During my second meeting with President Al-Burhan\u2014as part of the media delegation visiting from Doha\u2014I noticed that all the members of the delegation were focused on current events and the many questions circulating in the political sphere, many of which only the president himself could answer. However, in that …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":8232,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51493","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51493","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=51493"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51493\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":51495,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/51493\/revisions\/51495"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8232"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=51493"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=51493"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=51493"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}