{"id":52110,"date":"2025-07-29T15:11:37","date_gmt":"2025-07-29T12:11:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/?p=52110"},"modified":"2025-07-29T15:11:37","modified_gmt":"2025-07-29T12:11:37","slug":"the-government-of-hope-what-are-its-grand-strategic-tasks1-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/2025\/07\/29\/the-government-of-hope-what-are-its-grand-strategic-tasks1-2\/","title":{"rendered":"The Government of Hope: What Are Its Grand Strategic Tasks?(1 – 2)"},"content":{"rendered":"

Dr. Al-Dirdiri Mohamed Ahmed<\/strong><\/p>\n

Who could forget that February 2025 meeting between Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House? That encounter left a mark in the global memory because it was a live, on-air negotiation between the leader of the world\u2019s most powerful nation and the head of a European country that had been the victim of brutal aggression\u2014an aggression that compelled the United States to spend nearly $300 billion in support, and forced Europe to contribute around $200 billion.<\/p>\n

But more importantly, it represented a turning point in the modern history of international relations. After that moment, it became clear to many that the cornerstone of the contemporary world order was no longer \u201cpreventing aggression\u201d\u2014as enshrined in Article 4(2) of the UN Charter and interpreted in UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 (1974). Instead, the new cornerstone was having the cards. Since that historic meeting, not a single head of state or government operates today without being in constant search of their own \u201ccards.\u201d<\/p>\n

For Sudan, finding such \u201ccards\u201d must be the first and foremost concern of Prime Minister-designate Dr. Kamal Idris and his cabinet-in-formation. Sudan currently has no cards to play. This first part of a two-part article will explore the significance of political \u201ccards\u201d in today\u2019s world and how a country like Sudan might manufacture them.<\/p>\n

In that meeting, Trump bluntly told Zelensky:
\n\u201cYou are not in a good position. You don\u2019t have the cards right now. With us, you will start to have the cards.\u201d
\nWhen Zelensky replied, \u201cI don\u2019t play cards,\u201d Trump insisted:
\n\u201cYou do play cards. You are playing cards… Your country is in big trouble. You won\u2019t win this. You only have a slim chance of survival\u2014thanks to us.\u201d
\nHe concluded ominously:
\n\u201cIt is going to be hard to do business like this.\u201d<\/p>\n

Before Trump assumed office in January 2016, the post\u2013Cold War international order was built on respect for international law and shared global values. The world operated under what was known as the rules-based international order\u2014with norms centered on international law, multilateral cooperation (through institutions like the UN and WTO), and principles of democracy and human rights.<\/p>\n

The 1990s and early 2000s were marked by an idealistic phase, in which law, values, and institutions replaced raw power as the foundation of global politics. These ideals were championed by major thinkers\u2014some of whose ideas are still debated today. Francis Fukuyama\u2019s The End of History (1992) predicted the triumph of liberal democracy and the fading of ideological conflict. Joseph Nye developed the concept of \u201csoft power\u201d and emphasized multilateral diplomacy. Anne-Marie Slaughter promoted strengthening the liberal international order through transnational networks of governance and cooperation. John Ikenberry wrote extensively about the need for the U.S. to lead the global system\u2014arguing only it could uphold such a rules-based architecture.<\/p>\n

But with Trump\u2019s presidency and the rise of \u201cAmerica First,\u201d the United States veered away from those normative principles. It elevated national dominance over international cooperation, rejected traditional alliances like NATO unless they delivered direct material benefits, and adopted a new foreign policy approach rooted in transactionalism. Power and interest came to trump law.<\/p>\n

Zelensky could not rely on American support simply because Russia had violated the principle of \u201cnon-aggression.\u201d He had to show he held cards.<\/p>\n

By taking this path, the U.S. opened the door for other global powers to follow suit\u2014namely Russia, China, India, Brazil, Israel, and Turkey. Strongman leaders like Putin, Xi Jinping, Modi, Bolsonaro (likely to return just as Trump did), Netanyahu, and Erdo\u011fan gained influence. The new dominant worldview was shaped by realists like John Mearsheimer, who argues that great powers act based on interests, not values.<\/p>\n

This realist resurgence revived older theories from Barry Posen (2014), who advocates \u201cstrategic restraint\u201d in U.S. foreign policy, and classics by Randall Schweller (1998) and Kenneth Waltz (1979).<\/p>\n

The practical result? A global system less concerned with principles and more focused on power and leverage\u2014on having the cards. Multilateral cooperation on human rights collapsed. The U.S. no longer made human rights a central foreign policy priority. Trump infamously dismissed concerns over Jamal Khashoggi\u2019s murder and praised Mohammad bin Salman. America withdrew from the Human Rights Council, the Paris Climate Accord, the WHO, and the Iran nuclear deal. Its \u201csolution\u201d to the Middle East crisis came in the form of the Abraham Accords\u2014blunt, transactional deals normalizing ties between Israel and Arab states, with no regard for Palestinian rights.<\/p>\n

American foreign policy began to revolve around \u201cstrong allies\u201d like Mohammad bin Salman, Mohammed bin Zayed, and Netanyahu. Prominent global voices sounded the alarm. Angela Merkel warned in 2019 that \u201cthe old certainties of the post-WWII order no longer hold.\u201d Gideon Rachman of the Financial Times called the current world order \u201cstrongmen vs. the rules.\u201d The Economist repeatedly described global politics since 2018 as a kind of \u201cgeopolitical thuggery.\u201d<\/p>\n

That\u2019s why Sudan\u2019s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister must prepare for the possibility that\u2014sooner or later\u2014they\u2019ll be sitting across from Trump in the White House, in Zelensky\u2019s very seat. When that moment comes, they must not find themselves empty-handed\u2014without cards to play.<\/p>\n

Sudan is not an exception when it comes to building such \u201ccards.\u201d Regional powers around us have all forged strategic cards they actively maintain and deploy when needed.<\/p>\n

Egypt\u2019s most powerful card is its enduring peace with Israel. Another is the Suez Canal\u2014used strategically as a bargaining chip, even though its geopolitical significance is rooted in geography. Through effective diplomatic marketing, Egypt made it a card. Add to that Egypt\u2019s cultural, religious, and media influence, anchored by Al-Azhar, and its massive economic and investment market\u2014all of which are diplomatically harnessed.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia\u2019s most valuable card is oil\u2014it\u2019s the second-largest producer after the U.S., with 10 million barrels a year. This has made it the de facto leader of OPEC. Another is its spiritual leadership of the Muslim world, being home to Islam\u2019s holiest sites. It has also wielded regional influence\u2014through its war in Yemen, rapprochement with Iran, and the Jeddah Platform on Sudan. Saudi Arabia supports its diplomatic agenda with media channels like Al Arabiya and Al Hadath, visionary programs aimed at youth, and future-focused policies centered on the post-oil world and artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n

The UAE\u2019s most important card is its aggressive opposition to Islamists and traditionalist movements across the region. It also actively engages in proxy wars\u2014in Yemen, Libya, Syria, and Sudan. It positions itself as the \u201cSparta\u201d of the Middle East and North Africa. Geographically, it controls a strategic chokepoint at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world\u2019s oil and gas flow. It plays both East and West, maintaining close ties with China and Russia while keeping traditional Western alliances. It leverages its financial, commercial, and media clout skillfully. Examples include Expo 2020, Sky News Arabia, and ventures into space exploration and digital innovation.<\/p>\n

Qatar\u2019s most critical card is the Al-Udeid military base\u2014the largest of its kind in the Middle East and a cornerstone of Western security in the region. Recently, Qatar masterfully used this card to help avert an escalating war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran\u2014one that directly threatened Qatar itself. It is also the world\u2019s top exporter of liquefied natural gas and used this advantage to sign long-term energy deals with Europe after the Ukraine war, positioning itself as a stable, sustainable supplier.<\/p>\n

Diplomatically, Qatar presents itself as the \u201cSwitzerland\u201d of the Middle East and Africa, in contrast to the UAE\u2019s Sparta. It has mediated between Hamas and Israel, between the U.S. and the Taliban, and most recently between Congo and Rwanda. It is active in behind-the-scenes diplomacy in Ukraine, Lebanon, Libya, Chad\u2014and Sudan too. One of its diplomatic cards is maintaining independent positions from fellow Gulf states, including relationships with Iran, Turkey, Hamas, and Islamists. Qatar has also distanced itself from Gulf wars, including Yemen. On the media front, Al Jazeera is its crown jewel\u2014arguably the largest news network in the Global South, shaping international opinion on issues like the Gaza war. Qatar has also used its massive financial investments\u2014like Canary Wharf, Harrods, global banking, European football clubs, and hosting the World Cup\u2014as powerful soft-power cards.<\/p>\n

One must not think that creating \u201ccards\u201d is a luxury only for the wealthy or powerful. Every country can manufacture cards if it understands its assets and how to deploy them strategically.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Dr. Al-Dirdiri Mohamed Ahmed Who could forget that February 2025 meeting between Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House? That encounter left a mark in the global memory because it was a live, on-air negotiation between the leader of the world\u2019s most powerful nation and the head of a European country …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":3167,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-52110","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52110","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=52110"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52110\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":52111,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/52110\/revisions\/52111"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3167"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=52110"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=52110"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=52110"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}