<\/p>\n
By Abdi Biyenssa <\/strong> Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed\u2019s remarks about Ethiopia\u2019s quest for access to the Red Sea has gripped the Horn of Africa region since it was publicly aired on 13 October 2023, with many spectators expressing concerns that another war might be on the horizon in the volatile Horn region. Moreover, from the security perspective, the HOA and Red Sea have been ravaged by non-traditional security threats, most arguably, terrorism and piracy for many years which compromised freedom of navigation in the region. Securing direct access to the Red Sea (port ownership) enables Ethiopia to re-establish its naval forces (undergoing since 2019) and contribute to the peace and stability of the region and project its own influence in the region, Negera stated.<\/p>\n Ethiopia has many challenges. Peace in Tigray is still fragile. There is conflict in Oromia and Amhara. The economy is under tremendous strain. The priority must be peace, post-conflict reconciliation, and reconstruction.\u201d<\/p>\n Rashid Abdi, a geopolitical analyst Concurring with Negera, professor Tronvoll said that stable, predictable, and transparent port access is an existential necessity for Ethiopia, to cater for its huge population\u2019s needs and to accommodate long-term policy planning for demographic and economic growth.<\/p>\n Rashid Abdi (PhD), a geopolitical analyst on the Horn of Africa and the Middle East said, as the Horn\u2019s most populous and largest economy, Ethiopia needs access to ports and Djibouti alone is not enough in the long-term. \u201cIt makes sense for Ethiopia to seek other ports apart from Djibouti,\u201d said Rashid, albeit questioning the timing. \u201cEthiopia has many challenges. Peace in Tigray is still fragile. There is conflict in Oromia and Amhara. The economy is under tremendous strain. The priority must be peace, post-conflict reconciliation, and reconstruction,\u201d Rashid conveyed.<\/p>\n Agreeing with Rashid, and notwithstanding the reasoning behind Ethiopia\u2019s push for access to the Red Sea, Negera concludes that the PM\u2019s speech was also destined to achieve certain political goals at the domestic level. \u201cFirst, to divert attention from the domestic crisis, second to revive the national sentiment, and third, to unveil the resilience and confidence of the Ethiopian government to contain multiple security crises raging in the country and create a regional agenda,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n For the diplomat at the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs however, the Prime Minister\u2019s speech was neither limited to access to the port, nor domestic politics, \u201cit also asserted [the need] for a new political arrangement in the Horn region such as a federation or confederation. AS<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" By Abdi Biyenssa Addis Standard Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed\u2019s remarks about Ethiopia\u2019s quest for access to the Red Sea has gripped the Horn of Africa region since it was publicly aired on 13 October 2023, with many spectators expressing concerns that another war might be on the horizon in the volatile Horn region. Reports …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":5236,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5235","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5235","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5235"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5235\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5237,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5235\/revisions\/5237"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5236"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5235"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5235"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5235"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\nAddis Standard<\/strong><\/p>\n
\nReports started to emerge months before his speech was made public that the PM is considering all options, from negotiation to the use of force, in order to secure a crucial port for the landlocked country of over a hundred million people. In a 45 minute long speech the PM reasoned out why access to the sea, the Red Sea in particular is a matter of existential concern for Ethiopia.
\nThe PM underscored \u201ca population of 150 million can\u2019t live in a geographic prison\u201d noting that by 2030 Ethiopia will be a country of 150 million people. \u201cIf we don\u2019t talk about the Red Sea issues, we will as much not talk about wheat export, green legacy, tax collection. If we have accomplished all these and lose it due to [not discussing] the Red Sea, it\u2019s meaningless,\u201d he emphasized.
\nEven though he insisted that his government will not go to war to achieve this strategic objective, he hinted that war is eventually inevitable when he said, \u201cwe can\u2019t say \u2018let\u2019s not fight today, let our kids fight tomorrow.\u2019 Let\u2019s talk today, so [our kids] don\u2019t fight [tomorrow]\u201d. The leaders of Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Ethiopia should discuss not only about current peace but also about sustainable peace, he asserted.
\nNeighboring states like Eritrea, Djibouti and Somalia who felt that Abiy\u2019s remarks pose an immediate threat to their sovereignty have all released statements rejecting the PM\u2019s consequential speech. However, on 14 November 2023, following widespread talks of imminent war, the prime minister said, addressing lawmakers, that \u201cEthiopia has no interest to fire a single bullet towards Eritrea, Somalia, Djibouti, Kenya or any other country in its neighborhood; nor do we have any question on the sovereignty of any country\u201d.
\n\u201cWhat I want countries in the Horn of Africa, the world in the east and west alike and all others to understand in good faith is our genuine interest and our problems,\u201d the PM pleaded. Completely dismissing comments that Ethiopia might be forcing its way to the Red Sea, the Abiy said that what Ethiopia is saying is \u201clet\u2019s discuss it under the rules of business\u201d.
\nCan Ethiopia Peacefully Secure a Port?
\nKjetil Tronvoll, Professor of Peace and Conflict Studies at Oslo New University College, with a specialization in Eritrea and Ethiopia, said PM Abiy Ahmed is utilizing what is called \u201cconstructive ambiguity\u201d in his statements which involves the use of language with layers of meanings.
\nHis statements go beyond access to a port, and have implicit references to the historical claim for territorial sea waters (to be harvested for resources) and as a security zone (for navy). \u201cPacked into it [the PM\u2019s speech] was Ethiopia\u2019s historical claim to parts of current-day Eritrea, and a rhetorical construction of an \u201cAfar polity\u201d (uniting Eritrean Afars with the Ethiopian Afars and Djibouti), and through such a construction Ethiopia would be given access to the Red Sea,\u201d the professor said.
\nNegera Gudeta, a researcher on peace and conflict and a doctoral candidate at the Institute of Peace and Security at Addis Ababa University said the PM\u2019s initial remarks which has sentiments of securing direct access to the Red Sea through carrot and stick approach wasn\u2019t received with open arms by the three countries compelling them to react aggressively, with issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity dominating their reactions.
\nHe argues that PM Abiy\u2019s speech was presumed as a de-facto declaration of war and an attempt of territorial expansion against the neighboring countries which was underpinned by historical factors, most arguably during Ethiopia\u2019s imperial past, the effect of which makes the prospect of peaceful settlement of Ethiopia\u2019s quest impractical.
\nHad Ethiopia\u2019s neighboring countries been stable democracies, with accountable and transparent political procedures guaranteeing long-term fulfillment agreements, port access could have been easily negotiated\u2026\u201d
\nAccording to Negera, PM Abiy\u2019s remarks on the occasion of the 116th Ethiopian National Defense Forces Day on 26 October 2023, where he said \u2018Ethiopia is not going to invade any country for a port\u2019 is an attempt to moderate his provocative remarks, and neutralize the resentment it sparked in neighboring countries. Given the economy, sizable population, and subsequent military prowess that primed Ethiopia as the Anchor State of US\u2019s Pax Americana in the Horn of Africa, any extra-legal claims arising from Ethiopia are naturally bad news for neighboring small states, Negera asserted.
\nAnother factor impeding Ethiopia from securing a reliable deal through peaceful means is the internal situation of its neighbors, according to Tronvoll. He said \u201chad Ethiopia\u2019s neighboring countries been stable democracies, with accountable and transparent political procedures guaranteeing long-term fulfillment agreements, port access could have been easily negotiated and agreed upon giving Ethiopia long-term policy predictability. Neither Eritrea nor Somalia can provide this\u201d he noted, adding that this does not necessitate the use of violence to \u201cconquer a port\u201d, but it surely rests upon Ethiopia to find means and ways to secure stable import\/export routes.
\nEthiopia tried to institutionalize the 2018\/19 \u201cfriendship agreement\u201d with Eritrea through drafting three bilateral agreements; a port agreement, a trade agreement and a cross-border movement\/petty trade agreement, which Eritrea\/Isaias Afwerki did not want to follow up and ratify, Tronvoll said.
\nA diplomat at the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs who spoke to Addis Standard on conditions of anonymity, also suggests that a potential resolution that grants Ethiopia a sovereign port through a legal argument is a fait accompli. They pointed to the Chile-Bolivia 2018 case, a long-standing conflict between Chile and Bolivia called the Chile-Bolivia maritime dispute. The case was brought forward by Bolivia to reclaim coastal territory it lost to Chile in the War of the Pacific. Following five years of deliberations after Bolivia filed the case at the International Court of Justice, judges determined in 2018 that Chile was not obliged to engage in negotiations with Bolivia regarding sovereign access to the sea. Accordingly, the diplomat believes a different outcome compelling neighboring states to negotiate over sovereign access to port is hard to come by.
\nRuling out the use of force, the establishment of a free trade zone in one of the ports, where Ethiopia would be granted access, and a joint venture between a neighboring country and Ethiopia to operate a port facility are the best alternatives at Ethiopia\u2019s disposal, they said.
\nHow existential is a port for Ethiopia?
\nPM Abiy Ahmed said Ethiopia can offer, in return for access to the port, shares of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Ethiopian Airlines, Ethio-telecom and etc. \u201cWhat we are saying is we have the best Airline in Africa, lets share that and you share the water with us; we have built the number one dam in Africa, let\u2019s share that and you share [the water] with us; your economy has problems, as our economy, so let us come together and grow together,\u201d he said during his latest appearance before lawmakers.
\nHe questioned how saying \u2018let\u2019s share the Airline\u2019 be taken as equivalent to war. \u201cThe name GERD itself is a pride; it is a dam we built after many ups and downs, but we are saying even that is okay to share\u201d for mutual benefits. \u201cSo it is good to discuss this matter calmly and peacefully.\u201d
\nNegera said from the contemporary perspective PM Abiy\u2019s claim for direct access to the Red Sea is part of the constant geopolitical dynamism in the Horn of Africa and the de\/reconfiguration of alliances of Ethiopia and Eritrea relations. He however, noted from economic, political, and security perspectives, direct access to the port is an existential necessity for Ethiopia irrespective of domestic irregularities and the timing.
\n\u201cFrom a geopolitical point of view, the Horn of Africa (HOA) is the most conflicted region where mutual trust is lacking in the inter-state relations of the countries in the region. Depending on other countries for access to sea outlets is risky for the national interest of Ethiopia since the political behavior of littoral states in the region is unpredictable and unfathomable. The political elite of the littoral states in the region could use the port as a bargaining chip to pressure the Ethiopian regime at any time,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n
\nHe added, from an economic point of view, being dependent on other countries for sea outlets and paying billions of dollars (approximately 2 billion dollars) for port service is a burden for the Ethiopian economy. It discourages foreign direct investment and creates setbacks to the economic progress of the nation. Considering the demographic pressures, promising economy, and the looming security risks in the Horn of Africa and Red Sea region, Ethiopia\u2019s claim to direct access to the Red Sea is justifiable to accommodate the current and future needs of Ethiopia.<\/p>\n