{"id":61690,"date":"2026-05-15T16:40:22","date_gmt":"2026-05-15T13:40:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/?p=61690"},"modified":"2026-05-15T16:40:22","modified_gmt":"2026-05-15T13:40:22","slug":"who-is-obstructing-the-aramco-deal-2-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/2026\/05\/15\/who-is-obstructing-the-aramco-deal-2-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Who Is Obstructing the Aramco Deal? (2\/2)"},"content":{"rendered":"

As I See\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Adil El-Baz\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

1<\/strong><\/p>\n

In the previous article, I said I would explain why I favor an agreement with and outline the positive effects expected from such a deal. I will also compare Kenya\u2019s experience with Aramco to Uganda\u2019s experience, which chose a different path in managing its fuel trade.<\/strong><\/p>\n

2<\/strong><\/p>\n

Where exactly does the core problem in fuel imports lie?<\/strong><\/p>\n

It is not a single problem, but rather a series of complex and overlapping issues.<\/strong><\/p>\n

First, the petroleum companies registered locally \u2014 38 companies on paper \u2014 are in reality only five companies operating under multiple names and rotating roles within the quota system.<\/strong><\/p>\n

These companies rely on loans from UAE banks and , paying high interest rates that are directly reflected in fuel prices inside Sudan. They generate enormous profits exceeding 22% of the value of each fuel shipment while possessing virtually no real infrastructure.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Most dangerously, they openly speculate in the foreign currency market, driving up the dollar exchange rate and importing inflation into the economy.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Thankfully, after a long period of negligence, the government finally recognized the danger of this system, abolished it, and began searching for alternatives.<\/strong><\/p>\n

In this context, it received three major offers, most notably from Aramco, Oman, and a third party whose details have not yet been disclosed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

3<\/strong><\/p>\n

Why do I prefer the Aramco offer?<\/strong><\/p>\n

For several fundamental reasons:<\/strong><\/p>\n

First: The offer provides deferred payment terms of 180 days while accepting guarantees from the Sudanese government and the Central Bank of Sudan.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Second: Aramco is not merely a fuel supplier; it is one of the world\u2019s largest instruments of energy and financial stability. Entering into a long-term agreement with it would move Sudan from a chaotic \u201cdeal economy\u201d to an economy based on stable supply. The agreement could also take the form of a government-to-government (G2G) arrangement.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Third: The deal could open the door to establishing large strategic fuel storage facilities, especially since the Gulf wars pushed major global companies to maintain massive reserves near critical ports.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fourth: Geographic proximity significantly reduces delivery time and transportation costs, sparing the country from the urgent need for large storage capacities that are currently unavailable.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fifth: The agreement would allow fuel imports according to actual demand instead of the current chaos. At present, 23 fuel tankers are waiting at port, while the country needs only around five tankers per month. These delays generate enormous fees added to purchasing and transportation costs, which ultimately burden ordinary citizens.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sixth: The deal would provide stable prices throughout the year, insulated from market volatility, while guaranteeing supplies that meet all petroleum needs.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Seventh: Aramco produces around 10 million barrels per day, and 80% of its production currently passes through the Red Sea, giving it a major competitive advantage over Oman, which produces only around one million barrels per day.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Eighth: The government would be relieved of the daily pressure of securing dollars, helping stabilize the exchange rate, control inflation, and protect agricultural seasons from fuel crises.<\/strong><\/p>\n

For all these reasons combined, Saudi Aramco\u2019s offer \u2014 with its credit facilities, stability, and political backing \u2014 remains the best and most suitable option for achieving immediate stability in the dollar exchange rate while addressing inflation and agricultural crises.<\/strong><\/p>\n

4<\/strong><\/p>\n

Now let us examine two regional experiences:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kenya\u2019s Experience<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n

Kenya adopted a 180-day deferred-payment agreement with Aramco, which reduced pressure on foreign currency reserves by approximately $500 million per month. It also contributed to stabilizing the Kenyan shilling and lowering fuel prices.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Uganda\u2019s Experience<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n

Uganda chose a centralized import model through its national oil company in partnership with . This generated government profits estimated between $140 million and $150 million since July 2024 and contributed to stabilizing the national currency.<\/strong><\/p>\n

5<\/strong><\/p>\n

Both models demonstrated that the solution lies in removing fuel imports from the hands of private companies and speculators and placing them under state-controlled mechanisms.<\/strong><\/p>\n

6<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sudan\u2019s crisis is no longer merely technical or logistical; it has become a sovereign and economic battle against the fuel mafia.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The government now stands before a historic opportunity.<\/strong><\/p>\n

7<\/strong><\/p>\n

Delaying the decision will only serve the interests of the fuel mafia.<\/strong><\/p>\n

It is time for the state leadership to choose:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Either continued economic bleeding, or a transition toward genuine stability powered by state-controlled fuel \u2014 not crisis-driven fuel.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

As I See\u00a0 Adil El-Baz\u00a0 1 In the previous article, I said I would explain why I favor an agreement with and outline the positive effects expected from such a deal. I will also compare Kenya\u2019s experience with Aramco to Uganda\u2019s experience, which chose a different path in managing its fuel trade. 2 Where exactly …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":58017,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-61690","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61690","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61690"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61690\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61691,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61690\/revisions\/61691"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/58017"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61690"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61690"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61690"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}