{"id":61851,"date":"2026-06-13T21:10:06","date_gmt":"2026-06-13T18:10:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/?p=61851"},"modified":"2026-06-13T21:10:06","modified_gmt":"2026-06-13T18:10:06","slug":"the-dollar-between-failed-measures-and-deteriorating-indicators","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sudanevents.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/13\/the-dollar-between-failed-measures-and-deteriorating-indicators\/","title":{"rendered":"The Dollar Between Failed Measures and Deteriorating Indicators"},"content":{"rendered":"

Prof. Ahmed Magzoub Ahmed Ali<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

This is not the first time that the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar has surged, nor is it the first time that the government has introduced a package of decisions and measures aimed at controlling the exchange rate. In every round, however, the dollar has knocked out government measures with a decisive blow and returned to the ring victorious once again.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The Sudanese pound has continued to depreciate sharply against foreign currencies, particularly the U.S. dollar, over the past six years.<\/strong><\/p>\n

It is well known that the exchange rate reflects the relationship between a country’s imports and exports. The relationship is direct: the more imports increase and exports decline, the greater the deficit in the external balance (assuming other components of the balance of payments remain unchanged). A growing deficit, combined with stagnant or rising imports and declining exports, inevitably leads to a weakening exchange rate.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The value of a currency is also linked to the size of the annual budget deficit and the methods used to finance it. Financing deficits through non-productive means\u2014such as excessive borrowing from the central bank\u2014effectively amounts to printing money without a corresponding increase in real production.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Therefore, any measures that do not directly increase exports, reduce imports, or lower the annual budget deficit are unlikely to achieve the government’s objective of halting the currency’s decline or stabilizing the exchange rate.<\/strong><\/p>\n

For this reason, administrative and security measures are little more than temporary painkillers. Before long, conditions return to where they were\u2014if not worse.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The failure to address this issue reflects an inability to accomplish what should be achievable. The challenge itself is relatively modest when viewed within the broader context of economic figures and compared with economies of similar size. Statistics indicate that import values have declined in recent years, accompanied by a decrease in exports.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Until 2018, Sudan’s imports ranged between $9 billion and $11 billion annually, while the exchange rate remained relatively stable at no more than 38 Sudanese pounds per dollar. By contrast, imports fell to approximately $5 billion in 2023, declined further to $4.8 billion in 2024, and are estimated at $4.5 billion in 2025.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the trade deficit dropped from $3.2 billion in 2023 to just $0.2 billion in 2024 and is estimated to reach $1.7 billion in 2025. Under such circumstances, the exchange rate should theoretically stabilize or improve.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The fact that it has not suggests either a lack of accurate information or a significant expansion of the informal economy. The continued depreciation of the pound and appreciation of the dollar indicate that the actual deficit is far larger than official figures suggest.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Production and Exports<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

According to government statistics, Sudan produces approximately 70 tons of gold annually, although actual production is estimated at between 90 and 100 tons.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Even if we rely solely on official figures, the value of gold production is estimated at roughly $9 billion annually. This is in addition to exports of livestock, sesame, gum arabic, cotton, and other commodities, collectively valued at between $1.5 billion and $2 billion.<\/strong><\/p>\n

All of these products suffer from widespread smuggling into neighboring countries, particularly amid the disorder caused by the current war.<\/strong><\/p>\n

These figures clearly indicate where government policies should focus if the goal is to improve the exchange rate.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gold: The First Priority<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The foremost priority should be preserving existing gold production through close monitoring, accurate accounting, and identifying production sites and producers. The next step is to halt gold smuggling, which represents the largest single drain on the economy.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Addressing this problem requires stronger administrative and commercial controls.<\/strong><\/p>\n

First, gold should be purchased at fair market prices through a single government purchasing window, regardless of media campaigns launched by powerful financial interests seeking to undermine such measures.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Second, these efforts should be accompanied by comprehensive registration and documentation of all participants in artisanal mining, as well as licensed companies and individuals, in order to establish accurate production figures.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Third, authorities should begin formalizing the sector by granting licenses to all mining operators, particularly those involved in artisanal mining.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fourth, the legal framework governing artisanal mining should be strengthened.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fifth, mining markets should be organized and regulated, with banking facilities and police stations established to improve security and oversight. Customs legislation relating to smuggling should also be reviewed and strengthened, followed by rigorous enforcement through specialized courts and severe penalties for smugglers.<\/strong><\/p>\n

This approach targets the roots of the problem\u2014the production centers themselves. Exchange-rate stability can only be achieved by addressing the underlying causes, namely increasing exports and rationalizing imports.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Beyond Gold<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Other export commodities are no less important than gold. Livestock and agricultural products, for example, are among Sudan’s primary sources of foreign exchange.<\/strong><\/p>\n

These sectors also require comprehensive policy reforms, including:<\/strong><\/p>\n