Fighting Escalates on the Gezira Front

Sudan Events – Agencies

The frontlines around Al-Gezira State, which were relatively calm in recent weeks, are showing signs of growing escalation, signaling a possible counter-offensive by the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), which are emboldened by a recent victory in Omdurman.
The Rapid Support Force (RSF) overran much of the fertile state in December, but failed to exploit the breakthrough by driving farther south and east. Instead, the Sudanese army stabilized the front, drawing upon large reserves of manpower in neighboring states, which include Sennar, White Nile, and Gedaref.
SAF’s 2nd, 17th, and 18th infantry divisions surround the state on three sides—as well as surviving elements of the 1st Division (the division from Gezira State itself)—supported by the 4th and 11th divisions farther in reserve.
Mass distributions of weapons to civilians—so-called ‘popular resistance’ groups—have bolstered the army’s defenses in the surrounding states, and in Managil, the SAF’s principal remaining redoubt in Gezira State.
Inside RSF-controlled parts of the state, the occupiers are dealing with a large and dense rural populace, unlike the rural populations that they control in western parts of Sudan. Although information is limited, there are signs of popular resistance, including occasional clashes and acts of sabotage, as well as brutal retaliatory crackdowns.
Local sources said that violent fighting erupted last Thursday east of Managil, after the army dispatched troops toward ‘Arab, a village 20 km west of Wad Medani, the state capital. RSF fighters descended on them, driving them back to the Abud area, which is 15 km east of Managil. The below geolocated videos corroborate that report. They show RSF troops counter-attacking against the army incursion in ‘Arab village. Some destroyed and captured equipment are seen, suggesting a SAF withdrawal.

Previous fighting along this axis took place in January, and this latest SAF foray indicates a continuing willingness and capability to take the offensive, despite not regaining yet any substantial territory since the RSF’s takeover of Wad Medani.
Following the clashes in ‘Arab, RSF sources on Sunday reported additional fighting in the Managil area, though we couldn’t confirm this.
Meanwhile, along the Gezira -Sennar border, anecdotal reports and satellite images suggest a push by the Armed Forces into northern parts of Sennar previously controlled by the RSF, including the Sennar Sugar Factory and surrounding areas.
Multiple fires detected yesterday, March 3, in the frontline area between Sennar and Wad al-Haddad (Sentinel-2 image, SWIR band; analysis by @baloola2)
Farther to the east, in Gedaref State, the governor presided over a massive rally Saturday graduating a new batch of recruits in Al-Mafaza Locality. No new clashes were reported on the Gedaref-Gezira front, as far as we are aware, though fighting previously has taken place around Al-Fau, the army’s frontline stronghold in the state.
Sudan’s Air Force is also getting involved in the action, launching airstrikes yesterday in Hassahissa, and Friday in Giteina Locality (which is not in Gezira State but is part of the same contiguous front, located in northern White Nile), and likely elsewhere too.
Meanwhile, in the capital region, SAF continues to make progress in Omdurman, seizing Hilal Stadium, among other landmarks, while in neighboring Bahri the RSF are threatening Hattab Camp, yesterday ordering civilian around it to evacuate.
Qatar calls for resumption of negotiations:
In the latest diplomatic developments, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Qatar issued an appeal to Sudan’s warring parties “to resume negotiations with the aim of reaching an agreement that ends the fighting and spares civilians further suffering….”

The statement dated March 1 further “reiterated the State of Qatar’s firm position toward the unity and territorial integrity of Sudan, and its rejection of any form of interference in its internal affairs…”
“Riyadh, Doha, and Cairo appear to be coordinating more closely in preparation for resuming negotiations between Sudan’s warring parties. At the same time, their principal focus is Gaza, not Sudan.”
Qatar played a key role in mediating negotiations during the previous Darfur war, but has not taken on a proactive role in this conflict.
Friday’s statement was delivered by Ambassador Hind Abdulrahman Al-Muftah during a UN Human Rights Council meeting in Geneva. But it also coincided with a number of other diplomatic developments, including the Antalya Diplomacy Forum in Türkiye, a high-level summit between Qatar and Egypt in Doha on Saturday, and a meeting Thursday between Sudan’s military ruler and Egypt’s president in Cairo.
Egypt’s Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry was in Doha for that summit March 2, also meeting on the sidelines with his Qatari counterpart, before traveling to Riyadh for a meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council.
In a statement, Egypt’s foreign ministry spokesman highlighted a meeting March 1 between Shoukry and Richard Atwood, vice president of the International Crisis Group, at the Antalya Diplomacy forum. That think tank previously has called for higher-level coordination among Arab states as a means of ending the war in Sudan.
Readouts from the Gulf Cooperation Council meeting and the Egypt-Qatar summit made no mention of Sudan, though the GCC’s Geneva representative (the same Qatari ambassador, Al-Muftah, who also represents the regional body) issued a statement saying,
“The GCC countries urged the Sudanese crisis parties to maintain calm, give priority to dialogue, unify ranks, preserve the cohesion of national state institutions and prevent their collapse, and prevent any external interference in Sudanese affairs that would fuel the conflict and threaten regional peace and security.

This statement demonstrates a growing albeit belated awareness of the high risk of total state collapse in Sudan.
These developments also could indicate that Riyadh, Doha, and Cairo are now coordinating more closely in preparation for resuming negotiations between Sudan’s warring parties. At the same time, their principal focus is Gaza, not Sudan. All of the recent inter-Arab meetings and the Antalya Forum have highlighted the Gaza crisis.
Sudan’s Acting Foreign Minister Ali Elsadig said in an interview with Anadalu News Agency that Sudan’s conflict “has been eclipsed by the war in Gaza, and also in Ukraine.” He was speaking during the Antalya Forum, which he attended. “Many individuals have been forced to flee their homes, leaving behind their belongings and requiring urgent humanitarian assistance. Despite efforts to provide aid with limited resources, the international community’s response has been insufficient.”
African Union panel visits Sudan:
The other significant diplomatic development yesterday, March 3, was a visit by the African Union High-Level Panel to Port Sudan. The move revitalizes African diplomatic efforts, alongside Arab ones, following failures by the East African bloc IGAD.
Appointed in January, the three-member panel consists of Speciosa Wandira-Kazibwe (the former vice president of Uganda), Francisco Madeira (the former head of the African Union Mission in Somalia), and Mohamed Ibn Chambas (a Ghanian diplomat and former head of the UN-African Union peacekeeping mission in Darfur).
The members met Sunday with Al-Burhan, who gave them a lukewarm welcome, complaining about the AU’s suspension of Sudan from the African Union in 2019, due to the military coup by Al-Burhan and his rival Hemedti. Al-Burhan said he wouldn’t have confidence in the AU’s role until it restores Sudan’s status as a full member of the organization, according to a press statement by the media office of the Sovereign Council, the top body of Sudan’s military junta.

Al-Burhan said that his coup was not a coup but a “dissolution of the partnership” between the civilian and military components of the transitional government.
The panel began its work last month, according to an AU press statement. For background, a previous AU panel, known as the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP), played a leading role in seeking to bring peace to Darfur and assisting with implementing the final stages of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which led to the breakup of Sudan and South Sudan in 2011.
Former South African President Thabo Mbeki, the chair of that panel, recently lamented the “woefully inadequate” African and international response to Sudan’s crisis, calling for a more robust humanitarian and political response.