What is Plan B, and What is Its Fate? (1)

As I See It

Adil Al-Baz

1. Yesterday’s speech by the Janjaweed leader disrupted many calculations in the political arena. It shifted the battleground significantly, widening his circle of enemies and disappointing his allies with his contradictory speech, leaving them paralyzed and in a state of confusion. Notably, Taqaddum neither welcomed nor condemned the speech, nor did they comment on its content.
The speech launched an unprecedented attack on the international community, accusing it of destroying Sudan, declaring war on Egypt, Islamists, and the Shaygiya tribe, and naming seven countries that he claimed are supporting the army. As for the army itself, he stated that it had been defeated long ago and that they are now fighting the Islamist battalions!
To be honest, I didn’t believe Hemeti had truly died until yesterday; he indeed died when his conscience accepted and justified all these crimes. He died when his speech was filled with lies and when he turned a blind eye to the bare facts that everyone else can see. Such a Janjaweed figure is better off buried than walking the earth.
2. The most significant point in the speech, despite all the frustrations it contained, was what he referred to as Plan B when he said, “We will move our battle with Burhan’s militias and remnants to Plan B.” What is this new plan that the Janjaweed leader intends to pursue?
We can see indicators of this plan in several signals within the speech. Yesterday, the Janjaweed leader declared a state of emergency and general mobilization for all soldiers, urging them to report immediately to the nearest unit. This call suggests two things: first, the militia is suffering from a massive shortage of human resources and fighters on the battlefield; second, this call is a mobilization effort to execute Plan B, for which he claimed yesterday he is now gathering one million fighters!
3. In the speech, the Janjaweed leader focused heavily on the issue of strongholds, saying: “Why doesn’t the air force bomb our forces’ locations in Hajar Al-Asal and Al-Bassabeer in the Nile River state?” This indicates that the strongholds targeted by Plan B are in specific areas, pointing to his desire to retaliate by targeting the strongholds affiliated with the remnants and the Shaygiya tribe. This means shifting the war to the northern regions, specifically Shendi and the north, indicating that Plan B, for which one million fighters are being mobilized, is aimed at northern cities rather than areas in western Sudan.
Supporting this is a video that circulated a few days ago showing hundreds of armed vehicles and fighters, chanting, “All the power to Shendi!” The talk of Shaygiya strongholds also incites the rebellious strongholds in western Sudan to once again send their sons into the war furnace. Here lies the danger of Plan B, which seems to aim at dragging the conflict into a field of civil and tribal war.
4. Significant indicators in Hemeti’s speech that are closely related to Plan B include the absence of any mention of negotiations, followed by his attack on the international community, accusing it of deceit and desiring the return of the Islamists (Kizan), questioning: “Do you want to destroy Sudan?” This attack on the international community implicitly targets his allies in Taqaddum, given their role in pushing the international community to side with and defend the militia. This means that Plan B will not heed international calls to refrain from expanding the war, nor will it care about what the deceptive international community says or does (Did it ever really care about UN resolutions that called on him not to attack Al-Fashir?).
5. Another feature of Plan B is that it seems to be the final plan that will determine the fate of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF); there will be no further plans after it. Either Plan B succeeds in achieving its goals, or it fails, and the rebellion is permanently crushed.
Plan B, the plan for one million fighters, is being led solely by Hemeti himself. He kicked it off with a sharp call for mobilization: “Those who don’t want to report, stay with your sisters.” A recent leak published by Sudan Tribune claimed that Hemeti arrived in Khartoum two months ago. If this is true, it means he has decided to lead the final battles under Plan B personally. What strengthens the likelihood of this being true is his attack on Egypt, something Hemeti couldn’t do if he were in the UAE, as it would create significant diplomatic issues between the two countries.
6. Therefore, Plan B revolves around mobilizing one million fighters, rallying and inciting tribes in the rebellious strongholds in western Sudan, and transforming the ongoing war into a civil war. It is a plan that does not care about the international community, led by the Janjaweed leader himself on the battlefield. What will be the fate of this plan? We will see in the next episode.