Accused of Supporting the Rapid Support Forces: Can Sudan and Chad Restore Their Relations?

The Sudanese-Chadian relationship serves as a complex model of African neighborly ties, intricately intertwined with political, social, and security interests. As the armed conflict in Sudan expands and its cross-border effects deepen, analyzing this relationship gains particular importance. Envisioning its future requires a comprehensive understanding of its intertwined dynamics and the potential for restructuring it on the basis of a strategic partnership balancing shared interests and security challenges.

Sudan and Chad share similar geopolitical and natural conditions, as well as complex social overlaps, exemplified by the presence of 13 tribes spanning their 1,403-kilometer border—the longest after Sudan’s border with South Sudan. This largely flat, unobstructed border has been a witness to a turbulent history since Chad’s independence in the 1960s and before Sudan’s independence.

Historically, this proximity has had dual effects: fostering social and economic closeness on the one hand, while also providing fertile ground for the spread of conflicts. The flow of weapons from Chad to Sudan during Chad’s numerous upheavals exacerbated traditional disputes in Darfur over grazing lands, complicating the socioeconomic landscape. The Darfur crisis, which captured global attention in 2003, exemplified the deeply rooted interplay between the two countries.

Escalation in Current Tensions

Currently, tensions between the two nations have escalated to unprecedented levels. Sudan, grappling with severe internal crises, has filed a complaint with the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights, backed by documented evidence and video footage accusing Chad of supporting the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF), including transferring arms and ammunition. Chad has denied these accusations, emphasizing its non-involvement in fueling Sudan’s conflict. Despite the grim scenario, there remains an opportunity to recalibrate relations on more balanced and transparent foundations.

Impacts of the Current Crisis

Arab tribal migrations from the north and east have historically extended into the desert environment of Sudan and Chad, reinforcing cultural and social ties. However, these factors have also heightened disputes when local issues became regional problems.

Darfur has not been immune to Chadian interventions, with N’Djamena supporting Sudanese rebel movements and Sudan reciprocating by backing Chadian opposition groups. This mutual interference has created a near-permanent state of instability.

The current Sudanese crisis, ignited between the Sudanese army and the RSF, has further strained bilateral relations. The border has become a hotspot for social and security tensions. Sudanese refugees have poured into Chad, which now hosts over 1.1 million displaced persons, including 700,000 who fled since the war began in April last year, and 400,000 who had already been in Chad as refugees.

Chad is now home to one of the largest UNHCR operations in the region, with support from other UN agencies and 40 NGOs, leading and coordinating refugee response efforts. Meanwhile, armed groups on both sides of the border have intensified cross-border military activities, posing significant threats to Chad’s national security.

Opportunities for Economic Partnership

Economic collaboration between Sudan and Chad offers significant potential for strengthening their strategic relations. Past security cooperation during the tenures of Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir and Chadian President Idriss Déby brought notable stability to their shared borders, encouraging economic projects aimed at fostering peace and partnership.

For example, Chad’s oil exports via Sudanese territory could provide considerable economic and political benefits not just for the two nations but also for neighboring states. This involves constructing a pipeline from eastern Chad to Sudan’s Red Sea ports, building on Sudan’s existing infrastructure, which already supports South Sudan’s oil exports.

Other promising initiatives include the continental road linking Sudan’s Geneina and Chad’s Abéché, funded partially by Qatar, and railway projects implemented by Chinese companies. These projects reflect political will to enhance regional integration, especially since Chad, as a landlocked country, relies on neighboring ports for its trade.

International and Regional Roles

Regional and international powers play critical roles in Sudan’s crisis, with varied positions reflecting their own interests. Egypt sees Sudan as integral to its national security, particularly concerning the Nile River and border stability, and supports the Sudanese army as a stabilizing force. Ethiopia, on the other hand, adopts a dual approach, participating in peace initiatives while leveraging the Sudanese crisis to expand its regional influence, particularly in light of border disputes and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam issue.

Chad’s position is also complicated, as its alleged support for the RSF conflicts with the interests of major powers such as Egypt, making regional coordination essential to avoid conflicting interests.

Recommendations and Challenges

To address shared challenges, Sudan and Chad could establish effective border monitoring mechanisms to prevent the infiltration of armed groups and enhance military cooperation through security agreements and joint training programs. Developing border areas is equally vital, with investments in projects that reduce poverty and foster stability, such as free trade zones to promote cross-border commerce.

On the diplomatic front, intensifying political dialogue through bilateral and regional channels is essential to resolving disputes before they escalate. International mediators can also play a significant role in addressing conflicts. Moreover, refugee-related issues require cooperation to provide humanitarian assistance and prevent the exploitation of displaced persons as tools of conflict.

However, these efforts face numerous challenges, including the presence of non-state actors like militias and armed groups, which undermine stability, and weak national institutions in both countries, which limit their ability to implement agreements. Additionally, external influences pose further obstacles, as some international powers may seek to exploit the conflict to serve their agendas.

While the current crisis presents formidable challenges, it also offers an opportunity for Sudan and Chad to redefine their relationship based on mutual interests and long-term stability.