Regional and International Threats of Al-Dagalo’s Control Over Sudan (2-2)

By Othman Galal

(1)
In the Persian Empire, it was customary that when a king died, the people were left in a state of chaos, lawlessness, and terror for five days. Once the new king ascended to the throne, order would be restored, and society would understand the difference between authority, order, and chaos.

Since April 15, 2023, the Sudanese people have realized the nature of the rule they would have suffered under if the Sudanese state had fallen into the hands of the terrorist Al-Dagalo gang. Ibn Khaldun, the founder of sociology, described this type of brutal governance in his Muqaddimah, stating that the nature of such rulers is harsh, resembling the instincts of wild animals. They seize people’s wealth and possessions, and when they take over a country, they quickly drive it to ruin because their nature is hostile to civilization due to their entrenched barbarism.

Any state seeking to rise within a tribal society needs virtue, morality, religious symbolism, and the preservation of societal values. However, the Al-Dagalo gang is completely devoid of these values. As Al-Afwah Al-Awdi aptly said:
“People cannot thrive in chaos without leaders,
And there are no true leaders when the ignorant rule.”

(2)
The Al-Dagalo gang’s political project carries the same nationalist and supremacist ideas that fueled identity-based conflicts in Europe and ignited the catastrophic Second World War. If the Al-Dagalo gang seizes power, Sudan will inevitably slide into deadly identity conflicts, a war of all against all, and fragmentation into warring mini-states.

What would be the regional and international consequences of Hamidti’s gang taking control of Sudan? Hamidti’s Nazi-like ideology would lead him to export his Arab supremacist model of governance to neighboring countries, particularly Chad and the Central African Republic, with his imperial ambitions extending to Niger and Mali. This would fuel identity-based conflicts in these ethnically fragile and politically and economically unstable states, igniting civil wars and repeating the tragedy of genocide in the region.

(3)
The spread of insecurity and identity-based conflict in Sudan would also intensify ethnic and nationalist conflicts in South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. South Sudan is already on the verge of a second civil war between the Dinka and Nuer, while Ethiopia and Eritrea are also poised for another devastating war.

Moreover, the chaos in Sudan and its neighboring countries would increase waves of illegal migration from African states to the Middle East and Europe. This would spread instability into the already troubled Great Lakes and Horn of Africa regions. Consequently, global trade through the Indian Ocean, where 20% of global trade passes, would be disrupted. This would exacerbate global economic challenges, including recession and food insecurity caused by the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian war. The result would be increased population displacement, famines, and worsening poverty, disease, and ignorance in these African states.

(4)
The most dangerous scenario is that this state of chaos in Sudan and neighboring countries could lead to deep-seated fractures within ethnic communities, resulting in secessions and the creation of new failed states. This would provide a fertile environment for terrorist organizations, thereby threatening regional and global security. Instability would spread to the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Egypt, Libya, the Gulf states, and the Maghreb. From there, terrorist activities could extend into Europe and the United States.

Therefore, according to the theory of collective security in international relations, these catastrophic outcomes confirm that the seizure of power by the Al-Dagalo militia in Sudan represents an existential threat to Sudan and a threat to regional and international peace and security.

(5)
Removing this existential and strategic threat requires raising awareness among both official and public opinion at the regional and international levels. This necessitates intensifying public diplomacy, especially through Sudanese communities in Europe and America, to engage with influential political parties, human rights organizations, civil society institutions, and think tanks involved in shaping political decisions.

Furthermore, removing this existential threat demands strengthening official diplomatic efforts with all countries worldwide and with regional and international institutions — including the United Nations Security Council, the African Union, the Arab League, the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, and the European Union. The goal is to pressure the United Arab Emirates to stop funding the Al-Dagalo militia with money, weapons, and mercenaries, to classify the criminal militia as a terrorist organization, and to support the Sudanese state and army with financial and military aid. This would enable Sudan to defeat and eradicate the terrorist militia, preventing the country from sliding into fragmentation and collapse, and preserving regional and global peace and security.