Has the Sudanese Army Approached a Military Victory in the Conflict?
Report – Fathi Al-Rahman Shabariqa
The recent progress made by the Sudanese army, along with its continued recovery of several important cities and towns in the fighting fronts over the past days, has sparked speculation about its potential to militarily end the war that broke out on April 15, 2023. This is amidst predictions by field commanders and military analysts who see this possibility, in contrast to dismissing the Rapid Support Forces’ ability to achieve the same.
Less than a month after the war erupted, several initiatives to halt it through negotiations were held at the Jeddah platform, but all efforts to contain the conflict through talks failed. The most likely option now appears to be a military resolution, which seems to be leaning in favor of the army based on field developments and military experts’ statements, while the Rapid Support Forces continue to question the Sudanese army’s ability to decisively end the war on the ground.
The Option of a Military Resolution
In this context, General Ibrahim Jaber, a member of the Sovereign Council and Assistant to the Commander-in-Chief of the Sudanese Army, confirmed during his visit to the citizens of Khartoum Bahri, recently recaptured by the army, that “the end of the war is near after the victories achieved across all fronts in Khartoum and other states.”
Former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Hashim Abdel-Muttalib, told Al Jazeera Net, “After the defeat of the Rapid Support Forces militia and their loss of the will to fight, and their inability to stand against the trained armed forces, which work according to well-thought-out plans with accumulated experience, executed with precision, dedication, patience, and the resolve of men, the enemy will be defeated in the coming days.”
Hashim added that he expects the Sudanese army to win in Greater Khartoum and the Gezira region soon, but it may take a bit longer in Darfur. However, he was confident that “Darfur will also be resolved soon by the will of the men.”
Matter of Time
Military expert and retired Sudanese Army Colonel Jamal Al-Shahid believes that the Sudanese armed forces and their allied forces have managed to fully control all operational theaters. He stated that they are now chasing and besieging the Rapid Support Forces in all their positions and have achieved noticeable and significant results on the ground.
Speaking to Al Jazeera Net, he said, “The Sudanese army has foiled all the illusions and plans of the Al-Daglo family to control the country with a high degree of success, which suggests that a final military resolution is imminent and just a matter of time.”
Al-Shahid acknowledged that the situation in Sudan is complex and changing, as allies of the Rapid Support Forces persist in sending support by various means, with clashes continuing in different parts of the country.
He added, “The battle is still ongoing, and it cannot be said that a military resolution has been achieved yet, but there will be very good news in the coming days, based on the great advance of the armed forces and the retreat and collapse of the rebellious terrorist militia.”
Loss of Control
When looking at the course of the war, it is clear that there has been a significant field shift in favor of the Sudanese armed forces. This shift begins with the army leaving the defense station that had characterized its military performance for a long period, and continues with victories in various fronts.
According to a military expert who preferred not to be named, speaking to Al Jazeera Net, the Sudanese armed forces are close to a military resolution. “Looking at the shrinking areas of control by the Rapid Support Forces, which previously expanded continuously, compared to the increasing operational areas of the armed forces and their control over many cities, villages, and towns on a large scale, including Khartoum, Gezira, Kordofan, and Darfur, which were once under the control of the Rapid Support Forces.”
The expert, who is well-versed in the ongoing military operations, added, “The biggest evidence of the army’s proximity to victory is that this control and the military campaign it is waging have put the militia in almost a siege, cutting off its supply lines, directly impacting the command and control system, losing the initiative, and the ability to maneuver and move forces.”
He further explained that the inability of the Rapid Support Forces to even employ defensive tactics or an organized retreat against the offensive tactics and maneuvers used by the Sudanese army, which only organized armies can counter, has left them with options of retreat, escape, or destruction, as he described.
Nature of the Resolution
A heated debate followed in Sudanese circles after a public speech by the Vice President of the Sudanese Sovereign Council, Malik Agar, in Port Sudan on January 19, in which he confirmed that the Sudanese army’s victory is imminent and that all Sudanese will return to their hometowns in March. Some predicted an accelerated military resolution, while others did not rule out ending the conflict through negotiations that would put an end to the war.
General Hashim Abdel-Muttalib told Al Jazeera Net, “The Rapid Support Forces have corrupted the land, and their punishment is to be killed, crucified, or exiled.” He added, “Negotiation will come after the last person carrying arms is disarmed, and they resort to peace, when the war completely ends, and they acknowledge their defeat, in order to restore rights and hold accountable everyone responsible for the war.”
In the same context, Colonel Jamal Al-Shahid told Al Jazeera Net that the Rapid Support Forces had been given ample opportunity to resolve the issue through the Jeddah platform, “but they stubbornly relied on their strength and ignored all that, which led the Sudanese army to resort to military resolution and force them out of citizens’ homes, as commanded by the Sudanese people, who do not want negotiations with the militia, due to the great violations committed against them.”
Source: Al Jazeera Net
