President Al-Burhan and the “Emptying of the Circle” (2/3)

As I See

Adil El-Baz

1
I concluded my first article by saying:
“Now, the same internal and external forces—yes, the very same ones—with the same features, resemblance, and conspiratorial abilities, are attempting to play the same game with President Al-Burhan, using the same theory…”

In that same article, I explained what I called the “Emptying of the Circle” theory:
“If you empty the circle surrounding the president of strong and influential figures who possess wisdom, experience, integrity, and loyalty, he will fill the void with others who lack experience—and that is the beginning of weakness.”
Thus, the aim of this article—as I witness the ongoing struggle over positions—is to emphasize the need to preserve the unity of leadership, especially as we endure the midst of this war and move toward the end of the transitional period.

2
During the era of the former regime, the strategy and objective were to overthrow the system. Today, the goal has shifted to dismantling and dividing the country, after the attempt to control it through war failed—because it is impossible to bring down the system or gain control of Sudan, with its land, resources, and strategic position, while the country remains united.

But how can this be achieved now that both the coup and the war have failed? The only recourse is to return to a proven tactic: the “Emptying of the Circle.”

That is, to dismantle the cohesive circle around President Al-Burhan, which stood firmly by the army during the Battle of Dignity.

The reason for resorting to this tactic is that there is no street-led revolution this time. The public has turned against them, as has the army. There is no security committee colluding to support them. The coup attempt of April 14, 2023, was crushed, and the subsequent war failed.

3
The “emptying” has now begun by intensifying military pressure through escalation of the war, then political pressure via growing international interventions and threats. This began with the announcement of a “Quad” meeting—including the UAE—to be held in Washington this coming August, with the aim of imposing a settlement that redraws the political field to bring back the militias and their allies into both the political and military arenas!

Should these pressures succeed in forcing such a settlement, it would mark the first crack—the beginning of the “Emptying of the Circle” scenario. For it would become impossible for the various circles that currently support President Al-Burhan and the army to remain unified.

What are these circles? There are three main ones:

The first: the military circle, which includes army leaders, aides, regional commanders, field force commanders, military intelligence, the General Intelligence Service, and the president’s deputies and advisers.

The second: what can be called the “Dignity Alliance”, a broad spectrum whose most notable members are the joint armed movements.

The third: the political forces that have aligned themselves behind the army and supported it throughout the Battle of Dignity, regardless of their ideological backgrounds.

These are the three circles targeted for dismantling and removal from around President Al-Burhan and the army. But how? What methods are being used?

4
In the first circle—the military, security, advisers, and intelligence—the emptying begins by planting doubt about the affiliations, capabilities, and loyalty of the leadership. Some may even be accused of corruption, and a barrage of rumors is launched against them.

Typically, these malicious forces use a thick media smokescreen to carry out their plan—hammering the message over and over until the leadership begins to lose trust in those around it. Under the pressure of a fabricated hostile public opinion, the president is pushed to make dismissals and force early retirements.

And then the machine begins to spin—grinding down a group of competent military and security leaders currently surrounding President Al-Burhan.

Incidentally, this machine has already started turning and almost brought down a key leader. But President Al-Burhan was alert and aware of this wicked scenario and thwarted their schemes!

Of course, I am not referring to the traitorous faction that secretly communicates with the enemy, nor to those chatterboxes who leak information to known foreign and media entities!

5
The second circle, the Dignity Alliance: The questioning begins with suggestions that the joint armed movements are power-hungry and care only about securing seats in government—as was said just a few days ago.

Of course, those spreading such lies are deceitful, forgetting that tens of thousands are sacrificing themselves on the battlefield, with hundreds martyred daily.

No sane and fair person could believe that these people are giving up their lives in exchange for positions that are neither enriching nor empowering.

The real goal behind promoting such fabrications is to create public sentiment against them—setting the stage for the leadership to make decisions that unravel the Juba Agreement.

This would demoralize fighters and joint movement leaders alike. They would realize that the cycle of broken promises continues—leading them to withdraw from power or, at the very least, adopt a neutral stance.

At that point, thousands of fighters would withdraw from the frontlines or defect to other camps, hoping for something better. One of the key pillars of this alliance would be shaken… and part of the circle would be emptied.

To be continued…