Trump and the Thucydides Trap (1)

As I See 

Adel El-Baz

1

Over the past two days, I followed with great interest U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to China and the outcomes that emerged from it, because the visit comes at an exceptionally sensitive moment in the history of the international order.

It is a moment in which the struggle among great powers is reaching dangerous turning points, and the world is undergoing profound transformation as global power balances shift. New powers are steadily advancing toward the center of the global system, while our region is witnessing a war whose repercussions have cast shadows over the global economy.

The contradictions surrounding this visit were particularly striking. Each side was speaking in a political language the other did not truly understand. Each had its own agenda it wished to present and impose on the other, without much concern for how that message would be received or interpreted.

We can see this clearly in the agendas of both sides and in the outcomes of the visit itself. We also see it in the tense security atmosphere surrounding the visit, particularly through the classified security report revealed yesterday by The Washington Post.

2

As President Trump’s plane descended into Beijing airport, carrying with it eighty top-tier businessmen searching for trade deals and rare minerals, Chinese President Xi Jinping was immersed in history books, searching for a central idea for the speech he would deliver the following morning before the American delegation.

President Xi was not particularly interested in trade deals, soybean exports, rare earth supplies, or even the Boeing agreement. Instead, he was focused on one thing he called “constructive strategic stability.”

To convey this idea, he invoked ancient Chinese historical thinking, saying that the United States and China must beware of the “Thucydides Trap” in their current relationship.

As for the concept of the “trap” referenced by Xi, Wikipedia explains that it is attributed to Thucydides, the ancient Athenian commander (431–404 BC), whose work on the Peloponnesian War is considered one of the earliest writings in military history.

In that work, Thucydides argued that the war between Athens and Sparta was driven by the threat posed by a rising power — Athens, represented today by China — to an established dominant power — Sparta, represented today by America.

He famously wrote:

<span;>> “The rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta made war inevitable.”

Against the backdrop of this “trap,” President Xi placed the issue of Taiwan at the center of his discussions with Trump, saying:

<span;>> “The United States must handle the Taiwan issue with the utmost caution.”

Xi made it clear that Trump’s attempt to rebuild rapprochement with China could collapse from the outset if Washington interfered with Beijing’s long-term efforts to bring the self-governed island under its control.

3

Trump’s visit to Beijing was not merely a ceremonial visit, nor even simply an economic negotiating tour. At its core, it was an attempt to manage the most dangerous strategic contradiction facing the United States since the end of the Cold War:

How can America prevent China’s rise without descending into a full-scale confrontation with it?

Trump arrived in Beijing carrying three principal files.

The first was the economic and trade file, especially after the tariff war between the two countries evolved into a battle over supply chains, technology, and rare earth minerals.

China is no longer merely “the world’s factory.” It now controls highly sensitive sectors in advanced industries, particularly rare earth minerals essential for semiconductors, fighter jets, electric vehicles, and smart missiles.

The second file was security and military affairs, amid escalating tensions over Taiwan, China’s expanding influence in the South China Sea, and growing American concern over the rapid military transformation within the Chinese armed forces.

The third file involved the Middle East and the confrontation with Iran. Washington recognizes that Beijing has become an influential player in global energy equations and maritime trade routes, and that any major escalation in the region could offer China a strategic opportunity to weaken and exhaust American influence.

What did the visit achieve?

In practical terms, Trump secured no major breakthroughs.

China made no real concessions regarding rare earth minerals, nor did it retreat from restrictions imposed on the export of certain strategic materials.

Likewise, Trump obtained no clear understanding concerning Taiwan or China’s military expansion, limiting himself instead to saying that he would “consider” the issue of the weapons deal scheduled for delivery to Taiwan.

The visit demonstrated, however, that Beijing also does not wish to slide into direct confrontation — at least for now.

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Although the United States did not reap any major positive outcomes, the world has effectively entered the era of a “technological Cold War.”

The battle is no longer fought solely on the ground, but also over artificial intelligence, semiconductors, rare earth minerals, supply chains, and dominance over the global digital economy.

And this, in turn, will continue to enable China’s steady rise in the arena of international competition with the world’s leading superpower.