Somalia Threatens Conflict with Ethiopia

Agencies- Sudan Events

Somalia is prepared to go to war to stop Ethiopia recognizing the breakaway territory of Somaliland and building a port there, a senior adviser to Somalia’s president said.

A memorandum of understanding signed on 1 January allowing landlocked Ethiopia to develop a naval base on Somaliland’s coast has rattled the Horn of Africa, one of the world’s most volatile regions.

Ethiopia and Somalia fought a conflict in 1977-78 over a disputed region and tensions still run deep. Ethiopia invaded Somalia in 2006 to dislodge Islamists from Mogadishu, helping to spark the Al-Shabaab insurgency, and today it is one of the largest contributors of troops in the African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia.

Somaliland was a British colony until 1960. The territory enjoyed five days of independence before voluntarily uniting with Somalia, a former Italian colony. It was a bumpy union that ended with Somaliland breaking away in 1991, after a decade-long liberation struggle against a Soviet-backed military regime. Today, Somaliland is a de facto independent state, with its own currency, a parliament and overseas diplomatic missions.

Somaliland was a British colony until 1960. The territory enjoyed five days of independence before voluntarily uniting with Somalia, a former Italian colony. It was a bumpy union that ended with Somaliland breaking away in 1991, after a decade-long liberation struggle against a Soviet-backed military regime.

For two decades, Somalia has been blighted by Al-Shabaab, a powerful affiliate of Al-Qaida, making it one of the world’s most dangerous countries. By contrast, Somaliland is relatively peaceful, even if recent clashes on its eastern frontier with Somalia have dented its stable image.

Without recognition, Somaliland struggles to attract investment and is cut off from international finance, which is mostly channeled through Mogadishu. In an interview with the Observer, Somaliland’s foreign minister, Essa Kayd, said the port deal with Ethiopia will “legitimise our self-determination” and could spark a “domino effect” of other countries recognising the territory.

However, there is confusion over the content of the deal between Somaliland and Ethiopia. Neither side has made the full text public.

A western diplomat briefed on the deal described it as a “memorandum of misunderstanding”. “Ethiopia insists they did not agree to recognise Somaliland,” the diplomat said.

Kayd said the deal is based on Ethiopia granting recognition to Somaliland: “Without that, nothing is going to happen.” He added that discussions had been progressing “for years”. “Ethiopia needs sea access and we need recognition, so you can see how these needs can be dealt with.”

Somalia is unlikely to attack Ethiopia while it grapples with Al-Shabaab, said Alan Boswell, but the deal could open fresh fissures in a turbulent region.

The countries are Ethiopia’s main regional rivals and have both expressed support for Somalia in the wake of the port deal. “Abiy sees this as a legacy issue,” said Boswell. “If this deal with Somaliland falls through, Ethiopia will try to find a port somewhere else, so this is going to shape regional dynamics for years to come.”