Plan (T): Encirclement (4/4)

As I See

Adil El-Baz

1
In the previous episodes, I explained how the UAE sought to encircle Sudan by establishing economic relations with most neighboring countries. These relationships and aid are, in reality, nothing more than bribes to facilitate the passage of weapons and mercenaries, the construction of military bases, supply and refueling stations, and even hospitals to treat the wounded and injured militia members.

The UAE resorted to the comprehensive encirclement plan after all its previous strategies failed — starting with coups, followed by direct warfare, then the war of mercenaries and invasion — all of which ended in failure. The UAE has similarly failed in many of its other wars in Yemen, Syria, Libya, and elsewhere.

The question now is: What are the chances of success for this comprehensive encirclement plan?

2
The chances of success for that plan, which began with the outbreak of war, seem nonexistent. The signs of its failure and collapse are now becoming clear with the downfall of the militia that the UAE relies on as a tool to execute its scheme to swallow Sudan — its resources and territory.

Despite continuous support for the militia and the recruitment of mercenaries from various countries and ethnicities, the militia is now collapsing daily under the strikes of the Sudanese army, in full view of the world. The militia is now facing death, displacement, and siege. This is the first sign of the failure of the comprehensive encirclement plan, despite all desperate attempts to make it succeed.

3
The resilience of the Sudanese people behind their army and the unity of the army’s leadership and its mobilized forces have contributed to the cohesion of the state, which has managed to galvanize popular effort across all fields. The battlefields are now filled with fighters, and hundreds of thousands of young people have volunteered to join the army, making the mission of the militias and their allies difficult — if not impossible.

Those who rushed to encircle Sudan found all Sudanese united as a solid barrier protecting their homeland. They could not break through or weaken its free will. Even though they managed to recruit political mercenaries, all they could do was bark on TV channels with hoarse voices that no one heard.

Since some of them raised the slogan “No to War,” Sudanese people have become more determined to continue the fight until the militia is uprooted and its supporters defeated. The tighter the encirclement around Sudan becomes, the more unified and resilient Sudanese people grow.

4
It has become clear to the UAE that the countries attempting to assist it in encircling Sudan — and which receive billions of dollars in bribes to serve its agenda — are not truly strong states but are, in fact, more fragile than Sudan itself. All of them suffer from internal crises and civil wars that render them fragmented and unstable.

Libya: A divided state. The UAE knows that if the government in Tripoli gains strength, it could easily be overthrown overnight.

Central African Republic: An open geography for armed gangs. Its ruling regime is fragile and could collapse at any moment.

South Sudan: On the brink of a new civil war, which could be even more devastating than the conflict in Sudan, especially after the victories of the White Army and the arrest of Riek Machar, the vice president of Salva Kiir.

Ethiopia: Its internal situation is volatile, and experts predict that war could erupt between Ethiopia and Eritrea at any moment. Moreover, the Tigray Front has resumed its fight against the central government.

Chad: It appears stable on the surface, but it is simmering internally due to the policies of President Mahamat Déby. Despite Emirati support, Chad’s economy suffers from collapse and resource shortages. Additionally, the Zaghawa faction, which Déby relies on, has started to distance itself from him due to his position on the war in Sudan. Furthermore, the opposition group FACT has gained strength, recruiting thousands of former security personnel.

This fragile encirclement that the UAE is attempting to wrap around Sudan will not hold for long and will soon collapse. The billions of dollars in Emirati bribes will ultimately be wasted.

“They will spend it, then it will be a source of regret for them; then they will be defeated.” (Al-Anfal: 36)

5
The regional and international stance on the war is undergoing significant changes that can no longer be influenced by bribes. The African Union has stepped out from under the UAE’s shadow. Since March 2025, Morocco has held the chairmanship of the African Union’s Peace and Security Council. Moreover, Djibouti’s Mahmoud Ali Youssouf was elected as Chairman of the African Union Commission during the February 2025 summit of heads of state and government.

These changes have significantly corrected the African Union’s course, which had previously been biased toward the militias since the beginning of the war. Here, it is necessary to commend the efforts of Sudan’s embassy in Addis Ababa, led by Ambassador Al-Zein Ibrahim Hussein and Sudan’s permanent representative to the African Union. Since his appointment in December 2024, the Sudanese mission there has undergone a remarkable transformation, achieving what could be described as miracles.

6
The international stance toward the militia has also begun to shift noticeably, particularly after the militia’s failed attempt to establish a parallel government. This move was met with widespread global rejection. The international community not only refused to recognize such a government but also issued clear warnings to the militia, declaring that it would not accept a government established by a militia accused of committing genocide.

7
If the Sudanese people, who support their army, have thwarted all the previous plans of the militias and the UAE…
If it has become clear that all the encircling states suffer from internal fragility and that their alliance with the UAE is built on bribes…
If regional and international support for this encirclement is fading, and the truth about the UAE’s role in fueling the war in Sudan has been exposed…

Then achieving the goals of this plan has become impossible.

They are incapable of breaking the resilience of the Sudanese people.

They cannot rely on fragmented states to execute dirty and impossible missions.