Cobalt in the Congo: The Curse of Blue Gold Between Guns and Markets

By Dr. Abd Al-Nasir Salim Hamed

Director of the East Africa and Sudan Program – Focus Sweden
Researcher in Crisis Management and Counterterrorism

In eastern Congo, cobalt glows only with the flash of gunfire. Here, wealth is extracted from muddy pits dug by displaced people with their bare hands, while “blue gold” trucks make their way to green-tech factories in the West. Meanwhile, women and children remain in tents with no water and no schools. After decades of bloody conflict, the “Minerals for Peace” agreement—brokered by the U.S. and actively mediated by Qatar—has renewed hope that cobalt might be transformed from a curse into a lifeline for development. But the question remains: Can signatures on paper alone really shut down smuggling routes and silence the guns?

Roots of the Conflict: From Rwanda’s Genocide to the Wars of the Pits
The protracted conflict in Kivu is linked to the 1994 Rwandan genocide, when thousands of Hutus fled to Congo, carrying grievances and guns. There, the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) emerged as a thorn in Kigali’s side. Rwanda responded by backing the March 23 Movement (M23) to protect its interests and smuggling routes. A UN Security Council report (June 2025) notes the presence of more than 130 armed groups in eastern Congo, some equipped with heavy weapons and drones.

Digs Without Hope: Humanity Beneath the Soil
In villages like Rutshuru and Bishofu near the cobalt mines, thousands live in tattered tents without water or medical care. One displaced woman says: “We dig the earth with our hands and sell the stones for a few dollars, but we see no sign of peace.” A young miner adds: “Whoever holds the gun controls the road, while we dig our own graves.” According to UN estimates, there are more than 5 million internally displaced persons in eastern Congo, while cobalt trucks move through muddy roads guarded by armed groups.

“Minerals for Peace”: A Paper Agreement
On June 27, 2025, the “Minerals for Peace” agreement was signed, providing for the complete withdrawal of Rwandan forces within 90 days, in exchange for Congo halting support to the FDLR and Rwanda ceasing support to M23. The agreement includes a joint monitoring force under UN supervision and opens mines to Western companies under a framework of “clean supply chains.” Qatar played a key role in bringing the parties together, drawing on its experience in Darfur and the Central African Republic. However, M23—the strongest actor on the ground—has not yet signed, leaving the door open for breaches.

From Pits to Markets: Where Does the Blue Gold Go?
The journey begins with informal mining pits operated by unlicensed farmers. The raw cobalt is sold at very low prices, then transported by middlemen to collection centers near Goma, where smuggled and legal supplies are mixed. Trucks pass through Rwanda and Uganda, eventually disappearing into small companies in tax havens—making it nearly impossible to trace the original source. The World Bank estimates that over 60% of cobalt production is smuggled outside legal channels, generating millions of dollars weekly for trafficking networks.

The Markets: When “Clean” Is a Fragile Cover
Major companies in the U.S. and Europe promote “clean supply chains” to protect their reputations. However, they often rely on local intermediaries, causing raw materials to vanish into complex networks that are difficult to monitor. Experiences in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and even nickel mining in the Philippines show that “resource peace” without strict oversight becomes a fragile truce. The Niger Delta reminds us how oil wealth fueled ongoing conflict when justice and transparency were absent.

The Race for Influence: Washington and Beijing at the Edge of the Pit
Cobalt is a cornerstone in the production of electric vehicle batteries. China controls more than 65% of global refining capacity through giant corporations and long-term agreements in Congo. U.S. and European companies are now racing to secure “clean contracts” free from Chinese dominance—especially amid growing public pressure in the West against “blood minerals.” Analysts in Beijing are watching closely as the U.S. attempts to frame “minerals for peace” as part of a broader green power race in the heart of Africa.

Who Will Fill the Vacuum?
Even if Rwanda withdraws symbolically, M23 remains capable of returning under a new banner with even stronger weapons. The Congolese army is weak and fragmented in loyalty, while UN MONUSCO forces face criticism for failing to protect villages. Any power vacuum could attract local militias, mercenaries like Wagner, or private security firms tasked with guarding corporate interests. Meanwhile, neighboring countries such as Uganda and Burundi benefit from ongoing smuggling, while Kenya watches cautiously to protect the Mombasa Corridor.

Three Possible Scenarios

Best-case: Genuine withdrawal, M23 disarmed, strict tracking systems, and revenues directed toward real development.

Most likely: Symbolic withdrawal, continued covert support, and unchecked smuggling.

Worst-case: Collapse of the agreement, return to conflict with new mercenaries and evolving smuggling routes.

The World Bank notes that improved oversight could increase legal revenue by 30% annually—but these numbers will mean little if they do not translate into roads, schools, and clean water.

To Keep “Minerals for Peace” From Becoming Ink on Paper
The agreement needs a robust UN-African peacekeeping force with a clear mandate, digital certificates of origin that are fraud-proof, tight monitoring of secondary export points, real sanctions against international companies that fuel trafficking networks, local community participation in revenue sharing, and incentives for neighboring countries to break the cycle of ongoing smuggling.

Conclusion: A Mine of Hope or a Renewed Curse?
“Minerals for Peace” remains a test: Will local, regional, and international actors succeed in transforming blue gold from a source of bloodshed into a genuine opportunity for development? Or will trucks continue to leave muddy pits, igniting more gunfire every time their sparkle reaches global markets? The answer depends on who dares to break the vicious cycle—and who will expose and tell its truth.