Fiscal 2024 Budget…Eclipsed by War

Report by Nahid Oshi

A few days and we look forward to the year 2024 with a new general budget. This year comes while the Sudan is going through an exceptional circumstance and a situation different from previous budgetary planning, as the war that has been raging since April 15 has affected all aspects of life. However, economic experts believe in the need for setting a general budget for the country, whatever the circumstances. The economic expert Dr. Mohammed Al-Nayer believes that the normal situation that occurs is the preparation of a general budget for the state, and the circumstances of war do not prevent the preparation of a budget.

Oversized Budget
He pointed out that the budget for the year 2023, unfortunately, was inflated, as it jumped to (8) trillion pounds, and this was a big jump, and the budget itself suffers from diverse challenges, not only the war, but also from high estimates amid expectations that as long as the in year 2022 about (2.9) trillion was achieved, it would have been possible the budget for the current year to be (3.5) trillion, for example, with a natural growth rate between 10 and 16%, but the growth rate of the announced size will not be achieved for reasons brought about by war conditions and low revenues that affected the 2023 budget, considering that the latest budget in 2022 amounted to only (2.9) trillion pounds, after all the increases in duties, taxes, and customs, the removal of fuel subsidies, and the increase in commodity prices, only this number occurred, so it is not reasonable for the budget to jump to about (8) trillion pounds.

Performance Reports
Dr. Al-Nair argued that no performance reports have been provided so far, so that there can be an analysis of the budget, particularly that the Minister of Finance has mentioned in one of his statements that revenues are only about a third of the estimates, and this is a weak return.
But this does not mean not to prepare a budget for the year 2024, even if this were a war situation. The budget may be amended during the year, because it is going through an exceptional circumstance according to developments in the situation in the country, but it is inconceivable for the country to be without a budget, and no budget circular has been issued up to this moment regarding budget guidelines, and no budget proposals have been prepared and have not been submitted to the executive authority for approval.

Zero Balance
He went on to say that unless there is work taking place away from public, there are no steps now for the new budget as there is no information in the media. This is a major defect that will lead us into the new year without a budget. He expressed his hope that it will be addressed and a budget for the coming year will be prepared. He believed that it must be a zero-sum budget and not depending on previous budgets, considering there is a defect in the previous budgets, so a new, modern budget must be built based on program budgets, not items, and many problems must be addressed because the war destroyed many institutions, and a budget must be prepared that is compatible with the requirements of the next stage.

Economic Plan
Economist Dr. Kamal Karar argued that if the general budget means the state’s economic and social plan during the year, then this situation does not currently exist in our country, as the state itself is absent, and therefore the state institutions that develop the estimated plans necessary to prepare the budget are absent. This is on the one hand, and on the other hand, most of the government spending is directed to the war, and therefore, one can understand that this spending, since the fifteenth of April, has been directed in this direction, which practically means the failure of the 2023 budget.
In addition, 80% of the central government units were present in Khartoum and are now idle and absent due to the war. Therefore, the authorities responsible for preparing the budget itself do not exist, and their staffers are either displaced or refugees.
Karrar described the situation as catastrophic by all standards, and its economic impact will last for years to come.