Why does “Taqaddum” insist on bringing foreign forces to Sudan?

The political and civil coordination group “Taqaddum,” chaired by Abdullah Hamdok, is making significant efforts to “deploy international forces in Sudan” and impose a no-fly zone, amid the collapse of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) following the Sudanese Army’s progress and control of several strategic sites since the outbreak of the war in the country.

These efforts raise many questions about the UAE’s role in encouraging regional actors to enter as a new player in the Sudanese scene, especially after Abu Dhabi’s dreams of controlling Sudan through the RSF to serve its economic interests and dominate Sudanese national decisions were shattered.

According to political analysts, this desire reflects “Taqaddum’s” fear of failing to establish a foothold in the Sudanese political scene due to military developments and the army’s clear advantage, as well as the ongoing cabinet reshuffles in preparation for the upcoming transitional period, following statements from Sudanese military leaders confirming upcoming amendments to the constitutional document.

In a statement from “Taqaddum’s” coordination, which the Investigator received a copy of, Hamdok called for the creation of safe zones and the deployment of international forces to protect civilians from “war violations sweeping the country.”

Hamdok emphasized the need for a “no-fly zone over Sudan to protect innocent civilians from airstrikes, including drones.”

However, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on the Security Council on October 28 to provide the necessary support to protect civilians in Sudan, which is being ravaged by war. He stated that “the conditions are not favorable for deploying a UN force there.”

Guterres confirmed the calls from Sudanese citizens and human rights groups to increase measures to protect civilians, including the potential deployment of a neutral force, saying that this step reflects “the seriousness and urgency of the situation.”

Speaking to the Security Council, Guterres said, “At the moment, the conditions are not suitable to ensure the success of deploying a UN force to protect civilians in Sudan,” but added that he is ready to discuss other ways to reduce violence and protect civilians. He mentioned that this “might require adopting new approaches that align with the challenging conditions imposed by the conflict.”

Khaled Omar Youssef, Deputy Head of the Sudanese Congress Party and member of “Taqaddum’s” secretariat, revealed that the demands presented by the coordination’s leader, Abdullah Hamdok, to government officials and members of the British House of Lords focused on humanitarian aid for those affected and the protection of civilians in Sudan.

Youssef stated, in an interview with Al Jazeera Mubasher, that the meeting took place with officials in London when Hamdok visited, as the UK currently holds the pen for Sudan at the UN Security Council and is chairing its current session. The UK called for a meeting on November 12 regarding Sudan.

He noted a request for the establishment of safe zones to protect civilians, which should be demilitarized, with a ban on flying over them and free from military presence. They also demanded a ban on weapons and airstrikes in Sudan, as well as a ban on Sudanese exports, particularly gold, to prevent the use of proceeds to purchase arms.

U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller stated: “Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and regarding Sudan, Secretary Blinken emphasized the importance of expanding humanitarian aid access, halting the fighting, and supporting the political process to form a civilian government.”

For its part, the UAE Foreign Ministry stated that Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan urged Sudanese parties to return to dialogue, respect their commitments under the Jeddah Declaration, and follow the mechanisms suggested by the “Working Group to Enhance Life-saving and Peace Efforts in Sudan (ALPS)” to facilitate safe, urgent, and unimpeded humanitarian aid, and to comply with international humanitarian law.

He stressed the need for civilians to receive full protection under international humanitarian law, ensuring they are not caught up in the conflict.

Volker Turk, the former head of the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in Sudan (UNITAMS) – whose mission was concluded – expressed concern about Sudan’s future and the possible division of the country, with the Darfur region separating from the rest of Sudan.

In an interview with the German magazine Zenith, he said, “I am concerned about the future of the country. It cannot be ruled out that this war will continue for a long time and end in a de facto division of the country, which is neither in Sudan’s interest nor should it receive international support.”

Volker also did not exclude the possibility of parties in Sudan following a strategy to retain part of the country for themselves, stating, “The result could be another landlocked state in the region, namely Darfur.”

Strategic analyst: UAE may support the formation of an African force

A Sudanese strategic analyst residing in the United States, who preferred to remain anonymous, suggested that the UAE may support the formation of an African force to intervene in Sudan, after witnessing the defeat of the RSF on the ground.

She pointed to decisions made during the 18th Annual Consultative Meeting between the African Union Peace and Security Council (AUPSC) and the UN Security Council members in New York on October 18 to discuss peace and security issues.

In a joint statement, both councils affirmed that Article 24 of the UN Charter grants the Security Council primary responsibility for maintaining international peace and security. Furthermore, they emphasized the AUPSC’s mandate to enhance peace, security, and stability in Africa, according to the protocol establishing the AUPSC.

The statement also referenced Chapter 8 of the UN Charter on the role of regional arrangements in addressing matters related to international peace and security before referring them to the Security Council.

On October 17, the AUPSC and UN Security Council members held their 9th Annual Informal Joint Seminar to exchange views on activating cooperation between the AUPSC and the UN Security Council and implementing Security Council Resolution 2719 (2023) on financing African-led peace support operations, and further discussed issues such as youth, women, peace and security, and the adverse effects of climate change on stability and development in Africa.

The statement highlighted that, during the 18th Annual Consultative Meeting, discussions were held on Sudan’s situation, with deep concern over the ongoing armed conflict, looting of humanitarian supplies, and attacks on aid workers, as well as the destruction of civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and schools. The councils reaffirmed the need for accountability for violations of international humanitarian law.

The statement reiterated that there is no military solution to the conflict in Sudan and called on all parties to cease hostilities immediately, establish a permanent ceasefire, and return to negotiations, followed by a comprehensive national dialogue and political transition to end the suffering of the Sudanese people. They also emphasized the need for civilian protection and welcomed the African Union’s efforts to support Sudan’s political transition.